OECD GDP growth slows sharply to 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2011

Quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the OECD area decelerated sharply to 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2011, against 0.6% in the third quarter, according to provisional estimates released this morning by the OECD. The OECD total masks diverging patterns however. In the United States, GDP growth accelerated to 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2011, compared with … Continue reading

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Most major economies still in slowdown mode

The OECD has just published its latest growth forecasts, and the outlook is not great. Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continue pointing to a slowdown in activity in most OECD countries and major non-member economies. The assessment is little changed compared to last month for most countries. The CLI for … Continue reading

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UK to experience double-dip recession

In its latest Economic Outlook, the OECD forecasts that both the UK and the eurozone could see a double-dip recession over the next few months. The organisation has slashed its forecast for UK growth in 2012 to only 0.5%. It also believes that growth in the current quarter could be negative at -0.03% and in the first quarter of 2012 … Continue reading

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Prospects for growth worsen

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has slashed its forecasts for growth in the UK. It had previously predicted that we would see growth of 1.3% this year and 2.2% in 2012, but these have now been reduced to only 0.9% this year and 1.2% next year. The CBI does not believe that we will slip back into recession this … Continue reading

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Growth in the EU is “coming to a virtual standstill”

“Growth in the second half of 2011 is now expected to be subdued, coming to a virtual standstill towards the end of the year.” So says a new Interim Forecast produced by the European Commission today. The Commission noted that GDP grew strongly in the first quarter of 2011, but slowed down substantially in the second, and pointed out the … Continue reading

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Sharp rise in UK unemployment

Recovery, what recovery? Unemployment rose by 80,000 to 2.51 million in the three months to July, according to figures released this morning by the Office for National Statistics. This means that the jobless rate now stands at 7.9%. The so-called Claimant Count – those claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance, rose by 20,300 in August to reach 1.58 million. There was also a … Continue reading

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The economic recovery is close to flatlining

 Economic recovery appears to have come close to a halt in the major industrialised economies, with falling household and business confidence affecting both world trade and employment, according to new analysis from the OECD. Growth remains strong in most emerging economies, albeit at a more moderate pace.   “Growth is turning out to be much slower than we thought three … Continue reading

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Fiscal tightening is endangering global recovery says UN organisation

The Trade and Development Report 2011: Post-Crisis Policy Challenges in the World Economy, released yesterday by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), argues that a shift from fiscal stimulus towards fiscal tightening is self-defeating, especially in the most developed economies which were severely hit by the financial crisis. In such a situation, a restrictive fiscal policy may … Continue reading

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Trade slows in major economies

Merchandise trade growth slowed across major economies in the second quarter of 2011, according to figures just released by the OECD. Total imports of G7 and BRICS countries grew by only 1.1% in the second quarter compared to 10.1% in the previous quarter. Total export growth slowed to 1.9%, compared to 7.7% in the previous quarter. China’s imports grew by … Continue reading

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Is the global recovery running out of steam?

Composite leading indicators (CLIs) designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, point to a mild loss of growth momentum in most major economies for April 2011, according to figures recently published by the OECD.  A notable exception is the United States which continues expanding relative to trend, albeit more moderately than in last month’s assessment. The … Continue reading

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