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  • Anforme What has Happened to the Vertical Phillips Curve?

Anforme What has Happened to the Vertical Phillips Curve?

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Andrew Robertson, Head of Economics and Business Studies, Alleyn’s School, and a Principal Examiner, reviews the relationship between inflation and unemployment in the UK during the last half-century and considers reasons for the breakdown expressed in the original Phillips curve relationship.

Summary of Key Points:

  • The Phillips curve suggested a trade-off between inflation and unem- ployment and was consistent with a ‘demand pull’ view of inflation.
  • Monetarists deny that there is any long-run trade off and rational expectations theory challenges whether there is a short run trade off.
  • Targeting inflation at a low level,globalisation and technological change may have caused the natural rate to reduce.
  • Unemployment may not be a good indicator of spare capacity in the economy.
  • The natural rate of unemployment is an imprecise and unstable concept making it difficult on which to base economic policy.

This article is from ET Volume 18 Issue 3.

Andrew Robertson, Head of Economics and Business Studies, Alleyn’s School, and a Principal Examiner, reviews the relationship between inflation and unemployment in the UK during the last half-century and considers reasons for the breakdown expressed in the original Phillips curve relationship.

Summary of Key Points:

  • The Phillips curve suggested a trade-off between inflation and unem- ployment and was consistent with a ‘demand pull’ view of inflation.
  • Monetarists deny that there is any long-run trade off and rational expectations theory challenges whether there is a short run trade off.
  • Targeting inflation at a low level,globalisation and technological change may have caused the natural rate to reduce.
  • Unemployment may not be a good indicator of spare capacity in the economy.
  • The natural rate of unemployment is an imprecise and unstable concept making it difficult on which to base economic policy.

This article is from ET Volume 18 Issue 3.

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