Some good news at last as GDP rises

There was a strong upturn in the UK economy in the third quarter of this year, as GDP grew by 1% from the second quarter level. This was following three consecutive quarters of contraction when the economy slipped back into recession and was the strongest quarterly growth since 2007 according to the figures released this morning by the Office for … Continue reading

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Most major economies showing weakening growth – apart from the UK

This is a according to a survey published by the OECD this morning which measures Composite leading indicators (CLIs). These are designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, and show that most major economies will continue to see weakening growth in the coming quarters. The CLIs for the United Kingdom and Brazil continue to point to … Continue reading

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Least developed countries being badly hit by world downturn

The world financial and economic crisis has reversed recent growth trends in the world’s poorest nations, according to a report just issued this morning by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The Fourth United Nations LDC Conference, held last year in Istanbul, resulted in a Programme of Action that sets a target of having at least half … Continue reading

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Chinese manufacturing continues to contract

It is now 11 months in a row that China has seen a contraction in this major sector. The Flash China manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) produced by the bank HSBC, and eagerly awaited in economic circles, shows that the nine-month low of 47.6 in August, reached 47.8 mid way through September. The cause for concern is that any figure … Continue reading

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If only a double-dip was an ice cream

In the last few minutes it has just been announced that the UK is officially back in recession. Gross Domestic Product fell by 0.2% in the first quarter of this year, which follows on from a decline of 0.3% in the fourth quarter of last year. The official definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth. And, … Continue reading

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Government borrowing finishes year on target

Government borrowing in March, the final month of the financial year, came in at £18.2bn, according to the measure which ignores the temporary effects of financial interventions which include bank bail-outs. Many analysts thought the figure would have been lower, but it was offset by a revised figure for February borrowing which was slashed by £3bn. The Office for Budget … Continue reading

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Inflation to stay above target and unemployment to rise to 3 million

This is included in the latest forecast from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr), which has been voted the best GDP forecaster for 2011. The Cebr forecasts that increases in oil and commodity prices – reflecting the impact of quantitative easing in the US and Eurozone – mean that their inflation forecast has had to be raised sharply … Continue reading

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Divergence in growth between US and Europe

Economic growth in the G7 countries is expected to be firmer through the first half of 2012, but the recovery remains fragile and will likely proceed at different speeds in North American and Europe, according to the OECD in its latest Interim Economic Assessment. The Assessment, presented in Paris by Chief Economist Pier Carlo Padoan, says the G7 economies are … Continue reading

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UK growth revised downwards for last year

UK gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2011, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This follows two previous estimates of – 0.2% for the quarter. This had the effect of reducing total growth in 2011 down to 0.7% from the 0.8% earlier estimate. In the last quarter of 2011 output of the … Continue reading

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Positive growth signals seen in OECD countries

Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continue pointing to a positive change in momentum in the OECD as a whole. The United States and Japan continue to drive the overall position but stronger, albeit tentative, signals are beginning to emerge within all other major OECD economies and the Euro area as … Continue reading

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