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Category Archives: recession

Economy remains flat says NIESR

Research published yesterday by the National Institute of Economics and Social Research (NIESR) says that their monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output declined by 0.1% in the three months to January 2011. This follows on from the official fall in growth of 0.5% in the three months to December. Growth in January was actually 0.6% which was considered ‘robust’, … Continue reading

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UK growth forecast lowered

The new, independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) believes that UK growth will be lower than previously forecast by the last Labour government. It projects that UK GDP growth will be 1.3% this year, and 2.6% next year. This compares with the previous government’s forecast for 2010 of 3.25%.  The OBR also forecasts growth of 2.8% in both 2012 and … Continue reading

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Pushing us towards the death spiral

Yesterday the government announced that it was making initial cuts in public spending of £6.2bn largely by cutting what the Chancellor, George Osborne, called “wasteful spending.” These include cuts in consultancy, travel costs and cutbacks in various departments.  But this isn’t the whole picture on government spending reductions as we still have an emergency Budget to come on 22nd June. … Continue reading

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Do falling markets and tighter liquidity signal a new Great Depression?

This seems a surprising prospect at the moment, but according to Telegraph.co.uk this morning, Andrew Roberts, head of European rates strategy at RBS, said: “Great Depression II” could now be approaching; adding: “It now has the potential to speed toward its conclusion; a European $1 trillion package which does little and political panic tells you we are about to reach … Continue reading

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500,000 public sector jobs at risk

Once we’ve decided to which political party we are going to say “squeeze me I’m yours”, we are then going to be well and truly squeezed. And those in the public sector are going to be squeezed more than most. This prospect has led the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) to say that more than half a million … Continue reading

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Upside down Economics

Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates from 3.75% to 4.0%, which is the fourth increase in rates since last October. Yes, I did say ‘raised’ interest rates. While the rest of the world has been digging itself out of recession the Australian economy grew at 2.7% during 2009. This is at a time when other major economies … Continue reading

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NICE is to become a DRAG

So writes Larry Elliott in his online article today at www.guardian.co.uk. He says:  “Get ready for the austerity decade. Forget all thoughts that the economic storm of the past 30 months is about to blow over. We’ve had what Mervyn King once called the NICE period of non-inflationary constant expansion but now we face a long DRAG – deficit reduction, … Continue reading

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Massive fall in business investment

Business investment in the last quarter of 2009 was 24.1% down on the same period of 2008. Not only has investment fallen by a quarter, but it is continuing to fall. The figures for the fourth quarter of last year were actually 5.8% down on the previous quarter. The fall in business investment was evident across most industries, although there … Continue reading

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Sharp fall in retail sales

Retail sales volume fell by 1.8% between December 2009 and January 2010. This represents the largest decrease in a single month since June 2008 when it was 2.5%. Stores which predominantly sell food showed a fall of 2.4%, whilst predominantly non-food stores showed zero growth. Within this latter category, there was an increase in textile, clothing and footwear stores of … Continue reading

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Recession has ended, but only just.

Surprising figures just released by the ONS show that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2009, compared with a decrease of 0.2% in the third quarter. This was put down to growth in both services and production.   However, this figure was quite surprising as most commentators were expecting a larger rise, even up … Continue reading

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