Posts Tagged ‘redundancies’
Thursday, February 18th, 2010
In the three months to December, unemployment fell by 3,000 on the previous three months, to total 2.46 million. This gave an unchanged unemployment rate of 7.8%. There was also good news on the vacancies front, as these rose by 49,000 to 479,000. At the same time redundancies fell in the final quarter of 2009 by 36,000 on the previous quarter to total 168,000.
However, Yvette Cooper, the secretary of state for Work and Pensions said: “…we know things are going to be tough for a while and we expect further increases in unemployment before the summer.”
In fact, there was a surprising increase in the claimant count unemployment figures with the number claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance rising by 23,500 to 1.64 million in January 2010. Many commentators had anticipated a fall of about 10,000 in this figure rather than what turned out to be the biggest increase since July 2009. The treacherous weather in January may have had some impact on this total.
However, there are a number of unwelcome trends underlying the overall figures. For example, more people are taking on part-time or temporary work rather than applying for unemployment benefit – assuming they are eligible to receive it. According to the ONS the number of people in full-time employment fell by 37,000 on the quarter to reach 21.22 million, the smallest quarterly fall since the three months to July 2008. The number of people in part-time employment increased by 25,000 on the quarter to reach 7.67 million. There were 1.04 million employees and self-employed people working part-time because they could not find a full-time job. This is the highest figure since records for this series began in 1992 and it is up 37,000 on the quarter.
 Nearly 1 million young people under the age of 25 are unemployed in the UK. On top of this there is a great deal of ‘underemployment’ in the economy. In fact, the ONS estimates that there are 2.8 million people working fewer hours than they would wish to. So, although there is much less unemployment than we might have expected at this stage of the recession – some commentators had expected to see total unemployment reach 3.0 million when the recession began – the overall figures do mask an underlying problem with millions of workers on temporary contracts, taking on part time jobs and working fewer hours than they would have chosen.
In addition, the number of those out of work for more than a year, the definition of long-term unemployment, continues to rise. This figure was up 37,000 on the last quarter to total 663,000 which is the highest figure since 1997. Of even greater concern is the fact that nearly 1 million young people are out of work. This includes 198,000 16-17 year olds, and 725,000 18-24 year olds. Worse still is the fact that 190,000 young people have been out of work for a year or more. In fact, many have never started work, either since leaving school or university, and anecdotal evidence suggests that there are even more unregistered unemployed youngsters who are thinking of going back into the education process or have given up altogether.
As Yvette Cooper was quoted above, we know that the worst is not over yet. Almost without doubt, there will be further cuts after the election as public sector and private sector belts have to be tightened further. A lot of jobs are likely to be lost directly in the public sector and subsequent multiplier falls in demand could well impact the private sector as well. This means that a double-dip recession could still be on the cards.
Tags: part-time work, recession, redundancies, underemployment, unemployment, vacancies, youth unemployment
Posted in labour markets, unemployment | No Comments »
Thursday, November 12th, 2009
In the three months to September the number of people unemployed in the UK rose by only 30,000 when compared with the three months to June. This was the lowest increase for 16 months. According to the Office for National Statistics there were 2.46m people out of work in the quarter as measured by the Labour Force Survey. In fact, when we compare the current three month rolling average to that for the previous month, unemployment is actually down by 8.000.
This meant that the unemployment rate remained at 7.8% as it had been in the previous quarter. The highest unemployment rate since the war was in 1984 when it peaked at 11.9% and this reflects the current flexibility of the UK labour market at the present time, given that the current recession is a deeper one. The fact is that 1.4m people are currently working in part-time or temporary positions, even though they would wish to have full-time, permanent work.
The alternative measure of unemployment is of those who are currently out of work and claiming benefit. This figure rose by 12,900 to 1.64m in October which was the smallest increase for 18 months. The previous rise in September had been 20,600.
One figure of major concern is that of youth unemployment. The number of people between 16 and 24 who are out of work has risen by 15,000 to 943,000 compared to the previous quarter, to give a rate of 19.8%. David Cameron taunted the prime minister in the Commons yesterday with this fact, although Gordon Brown detailed a number of initiatives which the government had taken to reduce youth unemployment – all of which he claimed the conservatives had voted against. He also mentioned the fact that a quarter of all those in the youth unemployment group are also in full-time education. The figures regard them as being out of work even if they are only looking for a few hours work in a bar on a Saturday night.
Less encouraging figures relate to long-term unemployment. Whilst the overall rate is slowing the rates for the long-term unemployed are going up. Those out of work for more than a year increased by 13% over the past quarter to reach 618,000. At the same time, those out of work for 6-12 months rose by 12%.
Finally, vacancies only fell by 1,000 in the last quarter and redundancies dropped by 62,000 to 205,000. Some commentators believe that unemployment has already peaked and is now starting to fall.
Tags: redundancies, unemployment, vacancies, youth unemployment
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Thursday, October 15th, 2009
With unemployment popularly expected to peak above three million, most commentators were surprised by one measure of unemployment showing a tiny fall over the three months to the end of August. In fact, according to the Office for National Statistics, there were 2.469m unemployed between June and August, which was slightly fewer than the 2.47m recorded between May and July. We have not seen a fall in unemployment since the March to May quarter in 2008.
However, when the last quarter is compared to the previous quarter, there was a rise of 88,000 which reflects a total rise in unemployment of 677,000 over the past year. However, the rate of increase in unemployment is obviously slowing. The unemployment rate was 7.9% for the three months to August 2009 which is up 0.3 over the previous quarter and up 2.1 over the year. Again, these figures are on a three-month average. When detailed monthly estimates are examined it suggests that the unemployment rate fell from 8.2% in June to 7.8% in August. The UK’s official rate of 7.9% is well below the 9.8% in the US and the 9.1% average in the EU.
 Unemployment is not exactly back on track but appears to be heading in the right direction.
As far as the claimant count is concerned, which measures the number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance, this reached 1.63m in September 2009. This is the highest figure since April 1997. But, this figure only rose by 20,800 over the previous month, which whilst bad news for those affected, again shows a downward trend.
Other figures show that the employment rate for people of working age was 72.6% for the three months to August 2009, which is down 0.3 from the previous quarter and 1.8 over the year. There was, however, a fall in redundancies over the quarter of 68,000 to 233,000, although this figure was still 85,000 up over the year.
Average earnings, excluding bonuses, increased by 1.9% in the three months to August 2009 compared with the previous year, which is the lowest annual growth rate since comparable records began in 2001. This should help to dampen inflation.
What is particularly worrying about the current situation is that there was a further rise in youth unemployment, from 937,000 to 946,000. This means that 20% of young people between the ages of 16 and 24 are out of work and this rises to one in three for 16-17 year olds.
Although the overall trend in UK unemployment is going in the right direction the overall total does hide some changes in the labour market. For example, there are almost one million people working on a part-time basis – and, therefore ‘employed’ – who are actually looking for full-time work. Also, there are another 443,000 people who are working on ‘temporary’ jobs. On the other hand, it could be argued that this shows signs of the flexibility within the UK labour market which many other countries do not have.
This could be the reason that Yvette Cooper, work and pensions secretary was able to tell the House of Commons work and pensions committee that: “It may be that the traditional large gap between what happens to growth and what happens to employment may be narrowing.”
Tags: average earnings, Employment, redundancies, unemployment, youth unemployment
Posted in Employment, unemployment | No Comments »
Wednesday, September 16th, 2009
The number of people unemployed in the UK rose by 210,000 to 2.47 million in the April-June quarter. This was the highest quarterly unemployment figure since the three months to November 1996. There was an increase of 743,000 over the past 12 months in the numbers unemployed.. This means that the unemployment rate increased by 0.7 over the previous quarter to 7.9% and is up 2.3 percentage points over the year.
However, the rate of increase in unemployment is slowing. In the previous quarter 220,000 had lost their jobs and although the current quarter only saw 10,000 fewer lost jobs, at least it is moving in the right direction. This is added to by the fact that redundancies were 246,000 in the latest three months, but had peaked previously at 302,000 in the January to March quarter.
The recent trend in employment and unemployment can be seen in the figure below.
 Source: ONS
As far as the claimant count is concerned, which measures the number of people claiming Jobseekers Allowance, this reached 1.61 million in August 2009 – the highest figure since May 1997.
The government is investigating the large divergence between the two measures of unemployment, which may in part be caused by the fact that some people may feel that they have the ability to get a new job relatively quickly, and may therefore not sign on. Others may wish to avoid any possible stigma of appearing to need unemployment benefits.
On a regional basis the West Midlands has been hardest hit with unemployment having reached 10.5% which is up 4.2 percentage points over the past year.
In parallel to increased unemployment, the employment rate has also fallen, to 72.5% for the three months to July 2009. This figure has not been lower since February 1997. Altogether there are now 28.89 million people in employment, which is a reduction of 217,000 over the quarter and 600,000 over the past year.
We can expect unemployment to continue to grow and the governor of the Bank of England has just warned that the recovery would be a long one. One reason that unemployment continues to worsen even as the economy starts to recover, is that some companies hang onto staff because they cannot afford the cost of redundancy. Perversely, it is when things start to get somewhat better that they feel they can cut their wage bill by laying off staff. For others, they have only managed to stay afloat by getting their staff to work longer and harder during the recession, and possibly also taking a cut in wages. Again, as they start to come out the other side they may tend to reduce their staffing levels. Hardly the reward that staff were expecting but unfortunately it happens.
Tags: Employment, redundancies, regional unemployment, unemployment
Posted in Employment, unemployment | No Comments »
Wednesday, June 17th, 2009
The number of people in employment in the UK in the three months to April 2009 was 29.11 million, which was down 271,000 on the quarter and 399,000 over the past year, according to figures just released this morning by the Office for National Statistics. This was the largest quarterly fall in the number of people in employment since comparable records began in 1971. The employment rate for people of working age was down 0.8% in the three months to April when compared to the previous quarter, and down 1.5% over the previous year.
Manufacturing saw the biggest job losses over the last quarter of 78,000 which means there are now 2.94 million people officially classed as working in the manufacturing sector, which is the lowest figure since comparable records started in 1978.
The government’s preferred measure of unemployment, using the Labour Force Survey, stood at 7.2% in the three months to April, which was a rise of 0.7 over the previous quarter and 1.9 over the year. In total, there were an extra 232,000 who became unemployed during the latest quarter, to reach a total of 2.26 million. This represents an increase in unemployment of 605,000 over the past year.
 Source: ONS The other measure of unemployment, the claimant count, showed a figure of 1.54 million in May which was up 39,300 over the quarter and up 191,000 over the previous year. At the same time redundancies went up 36,000 in the last quarter and job vacancies fell by 38,000. Job vacancies now stand at 444,000 which represent a fall of 230,000 over the past year.
All the signals show a continued deterioration in the labour market even though there have been some signs that the recession may be bottoming out. However, employment is a lagging indicator and we can expect the employment situation to get worse before it gets better.
Tags: Employment, employment rate, recession, redundancies, unemployment rate, unempolyment, vacancies
Posted in Employment, recession, unemployment | No Comments »
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