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Archive for the ‘Asia’ Category

Upside down Economics

Wednesday, March 3rd, 2010

Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates from 3.75% to 4.0%, which is the fourth increase in rates since last October. Yes, I did say ‘raised’ interest rates. While the rest of the world has been digging itself out of recession the Australian economy grew at 2.7% during 2009. This is at a time when other major economies were contracting at anything up to 5%.

In fact, Australia only saw a reduction in GDP in the last quarter of 2008 and as it requires two consecutive quarters of negative growth to give rise to a recession, this means that Australia never fell into recession and has been doing quite nicely, thank you very much.

How has it managed to do so well? Firstly, like many other countries, the Australian government put in place a multi-billion set of fiscal stimulus packages and increased their infrastructure spending. They also put more money into the hands of consumers in order to boost spending. However, they have also benefited from their proximity to China as they provide many of the resources and raw materials which China requires.

Glenn Stevens, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia summed up the reasons for another hike in interest rates as follows:

“In Australia, economic conditions in 2009 were stronger than expected, after a mild downturn a year ago. The rate of unemployment appears to have peaked at a much lower level than earlier expected. Labour market data and a range of business surveys suggest growth in the economy may have already been at or close to trend for a few months. There are some signs that the process of business sector de-leveraging is moderating, with the pace of decline in business credit lessening and indications that lenders are starting to become more willing to lend to some borrowers. Investment in the resources sector is very strong. Credit for housing has been expanding at a solid pace, and dwelling prices have risen significantly over the past year.”

Asia recovering quickly

Tuesday, November 3rd, 2009

Asia is quickly rebounding from the global crisis according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in their latest report on the region. In the new Regional Economic Outlook which covers Asia and the Pacific, it forecasts an acceleration in economic growth from 2.75% in 2009 to 5.75% in 2010. These figures are both higher than previous estimates.

 

Why has the region recovered so swiftly? According to the report: “The  primary driver of Asia’s recovery has been a progressive return towards normalcy following the abrupt collapse in global trade and finance at the end of 2008. Just as the U.S. downturn triggered an outsized fall in Asia’s GDP because international trade and finance froze now their normalisation is generating an outsized Asian upturn.”

 

Asian growth is picking up strongly.

Asian growth is picking up strongly.

The region’s “rapid and forceful policy response” has been the other key driver to recovery, according to the report. This is mainly because Asia started from a more solid base than many other regions. It had sounder fiscal and monetary positions, and better bank and company balance sheets than previously. This allowed governments to make sharp reductions in interest rates and apply fiscal stimulus to maintain the levels of domestic demand.

 

However, there is a note of caution. Latest forecasts from the IMF estimate that the G7 economies will only grow by 1.25% next year, which will claw back only half of the contraction experienced this year. This is due to the lack of demand in these countries which has not yet recovered. The result of this is that the demand for Asia’s products will also be constrained and this will serve to keep growth below the decade average of 6.66%.

 

 

Asia to lead the world economy back into growth

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

Developing Asia, which excludes Japan, Australia and New Zealand, is set to expand growth by 3.9% in 2009 and 6.4% in 2010, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB). These growth figures have been raised from the forecast last March of 3.4% and 6.0% respectively.

 

“Despite worsening conditions in the global economic environment, developing Asia is poised to lead the recovery from the worldwide slowdown,” said ADB Chief Economist Jong-Wha Lee.

 

According to the ADB’s newly published Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2009, there are several reasons for Asia’s enhanced growth prospects. These include: the firm action taken by many governments and central banks in the region; the relatively healthy state of financial systems before the global crisis hit; and, the rapid turnaround in the larger, less export-dependent economies in the region.

 

The expected rapid growth is being led by China and India. The massive fiscal stimulus package and aggressive monetary easing put in place in the People’s Republic of China has led to growth forecasts of 8.2% in 2009 and 8.9% in 2010. Also, the ADB expects India to grow by 6.0% this year as a result of a large fiscal stimulus announced in July and a recovery in business confidence.

 

Other areas in the region are not faring quite so well. Hong Kong and Taipei are expected to shrink sharply due to a severe drop in demand for exports and countries like the Maldives have been hit by a drop in tourism.

 

However, Dr Lee warned that: “The improved regional outlook should not make developing Asian economies complacent. A protracted global slowdown or the hasty withdrawal of stimulus packages can degrade the region’s ongoing recovery.”

 

The ADB warned that if the area was to develop more resilient economies it would have to broaden the scope and structure of its openness. This would include reducing its vulnerability to external shocks by tackling the geographically unbalanced structure of its trade, capital flows and movement of workers.

 

The report concluded that: “By promoting closer economic linkages within the region and a more balanced internal economic structure with a bigger role for domestic demand, policy makers in developing Asia will be able to achieve rapid yet stable growth for the region.”

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